Published in «Russian Journal of Innovation Economics»2 / 2018
DOI: 10.18334/vinec.8.2.39040

Analysis of problem situations, risks and threats in the management of structural transformations based on the theory of adaptive management

Sokolov Aleksey Andreevich, The St. Petersburg State University of Economics, Russia

Анализ проблемных ситуаций, рисков и угроз в управлении структурными преобразованиями на основе теории адаптивного управления - View in Russian

 Download PDF | Downoads: 43

Abstract:
The article proposes a new approach based on the theory of adaptive management of the region to improve the management of structural changes in the socio-economic system in the context of the State policy deoffshorization. This approach consists in the use of logic-linguistic modeling of problem situations , cognitive approach to recognition of risks and threats, application of supercomputer technologies of data processing. The relevance of the study is due to the government's structural changes in the Russian economy to realize the goals of the digitalization economy, assess the socio-economic impact of capital outflows. The results of the study are the semantic model of the socio-economic system as a problem area, taking into account modern business conditions, fragments of the discrete-situation network, classification of problem situations in three classes, Matrix representation of risks and threats. This determines the mechanism of decision-making on emerging issues, helps to simulate scenarios of “centralized and decentralized“ decisions within the framework of strategic planning of activity of socio-economic system.

Keywords:

adaptive management, discrete-situational network, problematic situations, socioeconomic system, system analysis, System theory

JEL-Classification: M11, M19, M21, P00

Citation:
Sokolov A.A. (2018). Analysis of problem situations, risks and threats in the management of structural transformations based on the theory of adaptive management [Analiz problemnyh situatsiy, riskov i ugroz v upravlenii strukturnymi preobrazovaniyami na osnove teorii adaptivnogo upravleniya]. Russian Journal of Innovation Economics, 8(2). (in Russian). – doi: 10.18334/vinec.8.2.39040.


References (transliterated):
Dymkovets I.I. (2014). Metodologiya i instrumenty logiko-lingvisticheskogo modelirovaniya sotsialno-ekonomicheskikh sistem [Methodology and tools of logic-linguistic modeling of social and economic systems]. Vestnik rossiyskoy akademii estestvennyh nauk (sankt-peterburg). 18 (2). 31-34. (in Russian).
Ignatev M.B. (2014). Kiberneticheskaya kartina mira. Slozhnye kiberfizicheskie sistemy [Cybernetic picture of the world. Complex cyber-physical systems] S-Peterburg: GUAP. (in Russian).
Karlik A.E., Kukor B.L., Dymkovets I.A., Yakovleva E.A. (2017). Aktualizatsiya osobennostey razrabotki sistemy strategicheskogo upravleniya ekonomikoy Rossii [Actualization of specifics in developing a strategic management system of Russia’s economy]. Mezhdunarodnaya konferentsiya po myagkim vychisleniyam i izmereniyam. 2 303-306. (in Russian).
Klimenkov G. V., Pytkin A. N., Kukor B. L. i dr. (2012). Teoriya strategicheskogo analiza i metodologiya upravleniya predpriyatiem, otraslyu v konkurentnoy srede [Theory of strategic analysis and methodology of enterprise management, industry in a competitive environment] Perm: OOO «Izdatelskiy dom «Nika». (in Russian).
Kukor B.L. (1996). Organizatsionnoe modelirovanie protsessa upravleniya predprinimatelskoy deyatelnostyu v regione [Organizational modeling of business management process in the region] SPb.: Izd- vo SPbUEF. (in Russian).
Kukor B.L., Klimenkov G.A. (2017). Adaptivnoe upravlenie promyshlennym kompleksom regiona: teoriya, metodologiya, praktika [Adaptive management of industrial complex of the region: theory, methodology, practice] Ekaterinburg-S.Peterburg: FGBUN Institut ekonomiki Uralskogo otdeleniya RAN. (in Russian).
Odintsov S.S. (2012). Modelirovanie predmetnoy oblasti sotsialno-ekonomicheskoy sistemy v protsesse obespecheniya ekonomicheskoy bezopasnosti [Modeling of the subject area of socio-economic system in the process of economic security]. Izvestiya Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta ekonomiki i finansov. (1). 129-132. (in Russian).
Pospelov D.A. (1986). Situatsionnoe upravlenie: Teoriya i praktika [Situation management: Theory and practice] M.: Nauka. Gl. red. fiz.-mat. lit. (in Russian).
Uemov A.I. (1978). Sistemnyy podkhod i obschaya teoriya sistem [System approach and general theory of systems] M.: Mysl. (in Russian).
Volkova V.N., Denisov A.A. (2010). Teoriya sistem i sistemnyy analiz [Systems theory and system analysis] M.: Yurayt. (in Russian).
Volkova V.N., Kozlovskaya E.A., Loginova A.V., Yakovleva E.A. (2014). Sostoyanie i perspektivy razvitiya teorii innovatsiy na osnove teorii sistem [State and prospects of development of the theory of innovations based on the theory of systems]. Innovations. (4(186)). 33-40. (in Russian).
Yakovleva E.A., Buchaeva S.A., Gadzhiev M.M. (2012). Osobennosti opredeleniya ekonomicheskikh parametrov innovatsiy v analize effektivnosti investitsionnoy deyatelnosti predpriyatiya [Features of determining the economic parameters of innovation in the analysis of the efficiency of investment activity of the enterprise]. Management of economic systems. (12(48)). 57. (in Russian).