Published in «Russian Journal of Innovation Economics»4 / 2018
DOI: 10.18334/vinec.8.4.39641

Analysis of the dynamics and forecasting of consumer prices for milk and dairy products

Zhelezneva Raisa Grigorevna, Moscow State University of Technology and Management named after K.G. Razumovsky (First Cossack University), Russia

Mayorova Elena Aleksandrovna, Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Russia

Анализ динамики и прогнозирование потребительских цен на молоко и молочную продукцию - View in Russian

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Abstract:
Since milk and dairy products are socially important, an important task is to ensure their availability for the population. With the reduction in real cash incomes, the availability of dairy products depends largely on consumer prices. In this regard, the study set the following objectives: to analyze the change in consumer prices for milk and dairy products on the Russian market in 1998-2018; make a consumer price forecast for milk and dairy products for 2019-2021. As a result, trends in consumer prices for certain groups of dairy products were identified, corresponding mathematical models were constructed. Particular attention is paid to rising prices in the sanction period. On the basis of the constructed models, the forecast values ​​of consumer prices for milk and dairy products in September 2019, 2020 and 2021 are determined, the average expected price growth rate for 2019-2021 is calculated.
The estimation of consumer price dynamics for dairy products in the short-term period is given. The results of the study characterize the particularities, trends and prospects for changes in the prices of milk and dairy products and will be useful for the enterprises of the dairy industry to build an effective strategy, and also matter in the context of government regulation of consumer prices.

Keywords:

dairy products, milk, milk market, price

JEL-Classification: E37, L81, P42

Citation:
Zhelezneva R.G., Mayorova E.A. (2018). Analysis of the dynamics and forecasting of consumer prices for milk and dairy products [Analiz dinamiki i prognozirovanie potrebitelskikh tsen na moloko i molochnuyu produktsiyu]. Russian Journal of Innovation Economics, 8(4). (in Russian). – doi: 10.18334/vinec.8.4.39641.


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