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Abstract:Earlier, the authors of this article showed that the price situation in the housing market of Russian cities in 2017 was determined by such a major factor as the growth of oil prices (30-40%), which allowed monetary regulators to reduce the key rate of the Central Bank to 7.75% and target inflation to 2.5%, and credit institutions – to reduce the mortgage rate to 9.5-10%. This led to a record increase in the volume and share of mortgage loans in total purchase financing, while per capita incomes continued to decline. As a result, in the cities of Russia in 2017, there was a widespread cessation of the decline in apartment prices and the transition to stagnation (stabilization at the lower level of the cycle). Taking into account the actual result of 2017, the price forecast for the housing market of most Russian cities for 2018 was the likely change in real prices within the limits of +/-1,5-2,0%, which means the continuation of stagnation with an uncertain horizon. The exception, according to this forecast, could be single local markets with high regional gross product (GRP), where prices could rise significantly above the national average. This article shows that the above forecast of the authors for 2018 was fully confirmed, structural and dynamic data are presented, forming an idea of the further transformation of the housing market of the country and given three versions of the scenario forecast for 2019.
Keywords:construction, development, forecasting, housing, housing policy, input, investment, market, modeling, profitability
JEL-Classification: L74, R31, R32
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